Time to take off the rose colored glasses

The recipe for civil war

By Pepe Escobar

Najaf was bombed in August. Samarra was bombed in September. Sadr City was bombed in October. Fallujah was bombed in November. Mosul may be bombed in December. And Kirkuk may be bombed in January.

This is the calendar in the runup to the Iraqi elections set for January 30 next year. Then there will be another set of questions. Will the Iraqi elections be stolen? Will votes "disappear"? Instead of Florida or Ohio, will there be demands for recounts in Fallujah and Samarra? Like Ukrainians in Kiev, will Sunnis in Baghdad take to the streets contesting the results of their elections? Will interim premier Iyad Allawi - with a little help from his Washington friends - prevail?

With most of the recent insurgent violence directed at Iraqi civilians rather than US forces, the conflict in Iraq is taking a nasty turn for the worse. A similar pattern of attacks heralded the begining of Lebanon's long civil-war. Mosul, which Ayahd Allawi can't even claim to control already in the grips of a bitter internecine struggle as Kurds, Sunnis, Shi'ites and other smaller factions, battle for control of the city. Matters took a turn for the worse in Mosul as Sheikh Faidh Muhammad Amin al-Faidhi was assasinated this past Monday. al-Faidhi, a Sunni, was well respected by Shi'ites and Kurds, and wielded a great deal of influence with the Association of Muslim Scholars, which was calling for an election boycott.

But our American Nero continues to fiddle and his puppet, Ayad Allawi, continues to insist that elections will go forward as planned in January. Unless the security situation changes drastically for the better, however, any meaningful elections are an impossibility. Iraq will continue to degenerate into a full blown civil-war as American forces stand helplessly by in their fortified compounds.



- Why don't they ever listen? -