Civil War...? In Iraq...? Inconceivable...!

According to reports today, car bombs exploded near the Ali Iman shrine in Najaf, one of the most sacred sites to Shia Islam, and at a bus station in Karbala. Both cities are Shia controlled. According the BBC,

"...the aim of the bombers - believed to be Sunni insurgents - is to kill as many Shias as possible and try to stir up sectarian trouble ahead of the 30 January poll, our correspondent says.But leading Shias urged their supporters not to respond in kind.

"The Shias are committed not to respond with violence, which will only lead to violence. We are determined on elections," said one of the most respected Shia clerics, Mohammed Bahr al-Uloum..."

The key to avoiding all out civil-war between the Sunnis and the Shias lies in whether or not the Shia clerics can keep their followers in check. If they cannot, todays car bombings are but the first volley in a bloody internecine struggle between the Sunnis and the Shias. As to what the Kurds will do, that is anyone's guess. They may be content to play wait-and-see, letting the Sunnis and Shias slaughter each other. But should they be regularly attacked by either, or both, the Sunnis or Shias all bets are off. Iraq will become embroiled in a three-way civil war that will make Lebanon look like a Sunday-school picnic, as well as further radicalize and destabilize the entire region. If American forces step in, they will be accused of playing favorites, and will become targets to all involved.

Both British and US intelligence summaries pointed to the very real possibility of a three way civil war in Iraq. But, as is typical of the Bush administration, if the projections donnot pass their ideological litmus test, they are ignored. If civil war does erupt it, and its consequences, can be laid squarely upon the doorstep of the Bush administration. They were warned against going into Iraq to begin with, but they chose to ignore those warnings...The blood, both US and Iraqi, is on their hands.