U.S. Intelligence Paints a Darker Picture Than Dubbyuh Would Have Us Believe

By DOUGLAS JEHL

WASHINGTON, Sept. 15 - A classified National Intelligence Estimate prepared for President Bush in late July spells out a dark assessment of prospects for Iraq, government officials said Wednesday.

The estimate outlines three possibilities for Iraq through the end of 2005, with the worst case being developments that could lead to civil war, the officials said. The most favorable outcome described is an Iraq whose stability would remain tenuous in political, economic and security terms.

The NIE, pooh-poohed by Mark McClellan as being "pessimistic" gives lie to the Administration's rosy picture of Iraq and its future. The best case scenario is one of a future little different from the present in Iraq. THe Worst case is outright civil war between the Sunnis, Sh'ias and Kurds. It should be pointed out that the word "pessimist" was created by optimists to describe realists.